Global Ecosystem Collapse: Reconstructed Assessment of Likely UK Impacts on Food Security, Trade and Price Stability

Independent Reconstruction – Philip R Greenwood, Waterways Protection, 26th October 2025

Context and Background

In early 2025 the UK Government is understood to have commissioned a cross-departmental assessment examining how the collapse of major global ecosystems could affect national food security, inflation, and resilience planning. According to multiple press reports, including coverage in The Times and statements by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) and Cool Earth, the work was completed but not released. Sources cited a decision by No 10 communications officials to delay publication on presentation grounds.

The study was commissioned through the Cabinet Office National Security Secretariat (NSS) and drew contributions from DEFRA, HM Treasury, FCDO, DESNZ, the Met Office Hadley Centre, and the Government Office for Science (GO-Science). It formed part of the Government’s ongoing Global Risk and Resilience Programme, designed to inform the National Risk Register and the Integrated Review of security and foreign policy.

As no official text has been published, Waterways Protection has reconstructed the likely substance and structure of that assessment using open-source data, established government-report conventions, and recognised scientific literature. The following document adopts the analytical tone, structure, and evidence hierarchy typical of Cabinet Office or DEFRA papers. It is presented as an independent reconstruction, not an official release, intended to make the probable findings available for public scrutiny and expert discussion.

Executive Summary

This assessment considers the potential implications for the United Kingdom arising from the progressive collapse or severe degradation of major global ecosystems, including tropical rainforests, boreal forests, mangroves, coral reefs, and other key biomes. The purpose of this reconstruction is to provide a structured synthesis of the findings that a cross-departmental UK government report—reportedly completed but withheld from publication—would likely have contained, based on established scientific, economic, and security literature.

Available evidence indicates that large-scale ecosystem collapse overseas would have significant direct and indirect consequences for the United Kingdom’s economic stability, food security, and national resilience. The assessment focuses on four primary domains of impact:

Food Security and Price Volatility. Disruption of rainfall systems linked to Amazonian and other rainforest degradation would likely reduce agricultural productivity across key exporting regions. Subsequent supply constraints in soy, maize, coffee, palm oil, and beef would lead to price transmission into UK markets within a 6–18-month window. Modelled global trade shocks suggest potential commodity price rises in the range of 15–30 percent under severe deforestation scenarios.

Trade and Supply-Chain Integrity. The UK imports approximately 45 percent of its total food consumption by value. High import dependencies on ecosystem-sensitive regions (South America, Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa) increase systemic exposure to ecological disruption. Supply shocks in agricultural inputs (fertiliser, feedstock, fishmeal) would likely amplify domestic cost pressures, particularly in livestock and aquaculture sectors.

Macroeconomic and Financial Stability. Sustained food-price inflation linked to ecological shocks could raise headline CPI by 1.0–1.5 percentage points over baseline projections. This in turn would generate secondary fiscal impacts through increased indexation of welfare and pension commitments, and potential interest-rate responses.

Strategic and Security Considerations. Global ecosystem collapse is assessed as a compound risk driver, interacting with geopolitical instability, climate-induced migration, and energy supply volatility. The cumulative effect is likely to present as a multi-sectoral resilience challenge affecting national security, public health, and economic continuity.

The assessment concludes that, in the absence of coordinated international mitigation, the United Kingdom remains materially exposed to the secondary impacts of global ecosystem degradation. These risks are under-reflected in current national food-security, economic-resilience, and foreign-policy planning frameworks.

Scope and Purpose

This assessment examines the systemic implications for the United Kingdom arising from widespread ecological degradation and potential collapse of key global ecosystems. The focus is on quantifiable and policy-relevant risks to food security, trade continuity, economic stability, and national resilience.

The scope encompasses global biomes with critical roles in climate regulation and agricultural productivity, including rainforests, mangroves, coral reefs, and boreal forests. It focuses on transmission channels through which ecological decline abroad can impact UK economic and security outcomes, and dependencies within UK supply chains, particularly for food, fertiliser, and critical commodities.

The purpose of this independent reconstruction is to approximate, based on publicly available information and credible academic sources, the analytical findings of a government-commissioned global ecosystem assessment believed to have been withheld from release. The analysis is intended to support transparent discussion on the intersection between environmental collapse, trade dependency, and domestic economic vulnerability.

Methodology and Data Sources

This reconstruction draws upon established methodologies used in UK government impact assessments. The analytical framework combines desk-based synthesis, trade exposure analysis, scenario modelling, and macroeconomic transmission modelling.

Desk-Based Synthesis. Integration of findings from existing multilateral reports (IPBES 2019, FAO 2023, UNEP 2024, Chatham House 2021).

Trade Exposure Analysis. Review of UK import statistics (ONS, DEFRA, HMRC 2024) to identify concentration risks by region and commodity.

Scenario Modelling. Reference to peer-reviewed climate–agriculture models assessing yield loss and trade-price elasticity under deforestation and coral-reef collapse conditions.

Macroeconomic Transmission. Use of prior HM Treasury and Bank of England modelling conventions for CPI sensitivity to external commodity shocks.

Where quantitative precision is unavailable, indicative ranges are provided based on literature consensus. The reconstruction adheres to principles of analytical neutrality and does not attribute motive or intent to any government actor.

Key Findings

Global Ecosystem Dynamics. Evidence indicates that tropical rainforest systems, notably the Amazon and Congo basins, are approaching biophysical tipping points. Continued degradation is projected to reduce continental-scale rainfall and disrupt atmospheric circulation patterns influencing agriculture across the Americas and West Africa.

Food Security and Agricultural Productivity. Rainfall decline linked to forest loss would lower yields of key export crops such as soy, maize, coffee, palm oil, and beef. Global food prices would respond non-linearly, with higher volatility and amplified pass-through to import-dependent economies such as the UK.

UK Trade Exposure. Analysis of import composition shows the UK relies on high-risk ecosystems for approximately 70 percent of soy and oilseed imports (Brazil, Argentina), 45 percent of coffee imports (Latin America, East Africa), 35 percent of seafood by value (sourced from reef-associated fisheries), and 25 percent of animal-feed inputs.

Inflation and Economic Stability. Modelled severe-ecosystem-collapse scenarios indicate potential food-price rises of 15–30 percent over baseline, translating to a temporary increase in UK inflation of approximately 1.0–1.5 percentage points. Secondary impacts include reduced consumer spending power, upward pressure on interest rates, and higher fiscal outlays linked to welfare indexation.

Security and Strategic Implications. Global ecological stress is expected to compound other drivers of instability—energy shocks, conflict, and migration. The resulting risk environment may manifest as supply-chain interruption, reduced diplomatic bandwidth, and humanitarian pressures affecting UK defence and aid policy.

Economic and National Security Implications

The analysis identifies ecosystem collapse as an under-recognised driver of systemic economic risk.

Economic Implications. UK exposure is primarily indirect, transmitted through commodity markets and import-price channels. Food-price inflation, if persistent, would contribute to increased monetary-policy intervention and reduced consumer confidence. Downstream industries—food manufacturing, retail, and hospitality—would experience margin compression and potential job losses. Public expenditure on subsidies and welfare support may increase in real terms.

Security Implications. Global instability arising from food scarcity may increase migratory pressures, particularly from affected equatorial regions. Heightened competition for agricultural land and water resources could exacerbate conflict risk, requiring greater UK diplomatic and humanitarian engagement. Domestic security considerations include potential civil contingency challenges linked to supply disruption and public confidence in food availability. The combined effect is assessed as material to UK national resilience planning and comparable in scale to energy-security risks.

Sectoral Impact Analysis
Agriculture. Rising cost of feed, fertiliser, and imported grain – high impact.
Food Retail. Supply shortages and import price pass-through – high impact.
Manufacturing. Packaging, chemical, and energy input costs – moderate impact.
Fisheries. Decline in global fish stocks due to reef loss – high impact.
Transport and Logistics. Disruption of global shipping routes – moderate impact.
Finance and Insurance. Portfolio exposure to climate-sensitive sectors – moderate to high impact.

Public Sector. Fiscal pressure from welfare and emergency spending – high impact.

Sectors with high import intensity and low domestic substitution capacity are most vulnerable.

Policy Considerations

The assessment highlights several areas for policy intervention.

Strategic Risk Recognition. Integrate ecosystem-collapse scenarios into the UK National Risk Register. Establish cross-departmental oversight between DEFRA, FCDO, HMT, and the Cabinet Office.

Supply-Chain Resilience. Diversify import sources for high-risk commodities. Increase domestic capacity for key food and feed production.

Trade and Standards Policy. Align trade agreements with zero-deforestation commitments. Enhance due diligence on imported products linked to forest or reef degradation.

Financial Stability Oversight. Require scenario testing for ecosystem-collapse shocks within Bank of England stress tests.

International Engagement. Support multilateral frameworks for rainforest protection, sustainable fisheries, and biodiversity finance mechanisms.

Annex A – Global Supply Dependencies
Soy and Oilseeds – Brazil and Argentina – Rainforest – 70 percent.
Coffee – Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia – Rainforest – 45 percent.
Palm Oil – Indonesia, Malaysia – Tropical Forest – 30 percent.
Seafood – Southeast Asia and Pacific – Coral Reefs – 35 percent.
Animal Feed – Global – Mixed ecosystems – 25 percent.
Cocoa – West Africa – Forest – 40 percent.

Annex B – References and Source Materials

 IPBES (2019) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services – https://files.ipbes.net/ipbes-web-prod-public-files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf
FAO (2023) State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World – https://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/
UNEP (2024) Global Environmental Outlook – https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-7
Chatham House (2021) Food System Impacts on Biodiversity Loss – https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/02/food-system-impacts-biodiversity-loss
DEFRA (2024) UK Food Security Report – https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2024
ONS (2024) UK Trade Statistics – https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/uktrade
The Times (2025) No 10 blocks report on impact of rainforest collapse on food prices – https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/no-10-blocks-report-on-impact-of-rainforest-collapse-on-food-prices-k6ms9sj9b
ECIU (2025) Government blocks report on rainforest collapse and food prices – https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/government-blocks-report-on-rainforest-collapse-and-food-prices-comment
Cool Earth (2025) UK Gov blocks report linking rainforest loss to rising food costs – https://www.coolearth.org/news/uk-gov-blocks-report-linking-rainforest-loss-to-rising-food-costs/
BusinessGreen (2025) Government accused of blocking study on rainforest collapse and UK food security – https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4520160/government-accused-blocking-study-rainforest-collapse-uk-food-security
Carbon Brief (2025) Daily Brief: Rainforest collapse report blocked – https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/trumps-oil-picks-rainforest-collapse-report-blocked-brazilians-support-cop30/
The Guardian (2025) National security threatened by climate crisis, UK defence chiefs warn – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/08/national-security-threatened-climate-crisis-uk-defence-chiefs-warn
WWF UK (2022) FOI requests reveal black hole in Government plans – https://www.wwf.org.uk/press-release/foi-requests-reveals-black-hole-government-plans